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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 50
Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 24
What Actually Happened
(3:22) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at IND 49 for 1 yard (23-K.Moore).
The Three Options
GO
+0.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.04 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -1.92 EP
KICK
-0.99 EP
- 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 77% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT
-0.56 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
