4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.49 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP