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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 32 for 11 yards (49-N.Dzubnar, 42-Jo.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model