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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(8:48) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass incomplete short middle to 82-A.Trautman.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.95 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model