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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

ATL
42.0%
NO
58.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Trevor Siemian (NO): -0.025 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NO starting Trevor Siemian in place of Jameis Winston)
  • ATL offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Trevor Siemian (NO) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ATL

Josh Andrews G Out Not injury related - personal matter
Jonathan Bullard DT Out Concussion
Calvin Ridley WR Out Not injury related - personal matter

NO

Carl Granderson DE Out Shoulder
Ty Montgomery WR Out Hamstring
Jameis Winston QB Out Knee
Malcolm Jenkins S Questionable Knee
Payton Turner DE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 27
–
NO 25

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:31 FG ATL (4:31) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. ATL 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 00:09 TD ATL (:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 ATL 9 – NO 0
  • Q3 09:40 FG NO (9:40) 6-B.Johnson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. ATL 10 – NO 3
  • Q3 05:18 TD ATL (5:18) 69-J.Spriggs reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – NO 3
  • Q4 14:54 FG NO (14:54) 6-B.Johnson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. ATL 17 – NO 6
  • Q4 10:46 TD ATL (10:46) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-D.Onyemata]. Pass 6, YAC 0 ATL 23 – NO 6
  • Q4 08:02 TD NO (8:02) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 1-M.Callaway for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 ATL 24 – NO 12
  • Q4 04:39 TD NO (4:39) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 24 – NO 19
  • Q4 01:06 TD NO (1:06) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short left to 12-K.Stills for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 1 ATL 24 – NO 25
  • Q4 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. ATL 27 – NO 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 61%

    (11:39) 12-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to NO 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to ATL 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (4:31) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:36) 12-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NO 35, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 68%

    (8:48) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass incomplete short middle to 82-A.Trautman.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:28) 28-M.Davis left guard to ATL 44 for -1 yards (20-P.Werner, 94-C.Jordan).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 44%

    (5:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (9:40) 6-B.Johnson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (14:54) 6-B.Johnson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:16) 12-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NO 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris to NO 26 for 17 yards (21-D.Harmon).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:39) 12-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NO 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris pushed ob at NO 31 for 7 yards (27-R.Grant). PENALTY on ATL-27-R.Grant, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.