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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 28-M.Davis left guard to ATL 44 for -1 yards (20-P.Werner, 94-C.Jordan).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.43 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model