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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 6-B.Johnson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model