Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 6

(13:16) 12-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NO 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris to NO 26 for 17 yards (21-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.48 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model