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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to ATL 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model