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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 24 – New Orleans Saints 25

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +3.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model