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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model