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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP