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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

DEN
37.3%
DAL
62.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.279 vs Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.208 EPA/dropback (DAL starting Dak Prescott in place of Cooper Rush)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DEN

Garett Bolles T Out Ankle
Malik Reed LB Questionable Hip
Graham Glasgow G Questionable Hip
Albert Okwuegbunam TE Questionable Knee
Mike Purcell DT Questionable Thumb
Caden Sterns S Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Blake Jarwin TE Out Hip
Tyron Smith T Out Ankle
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Hamstring
CeeDee Lamb WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 30
–
DAL 16

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:52 TD DEN (1:52) 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – DAL 0
  • Q2 12:21 TD DEN (12:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 81-T.Patrick for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – DAL 0
  • Q2 03:46 FG DEN (3:46) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 16 – DAL 0
  • Q3 08:12 FG DEN (8:12) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 19 – DAL 0
  • Q4 11:24 TD DEN (11:24) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 25 – DAL 0
  • Q4 06:36 FG DEN (6:36) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 30 – DAL 0
  • Q4 04:14 TD DAL (4:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 17-M.Turner for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 30 – DAL 6
  • Q4 01:00 TD DAL (1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 17-M.Turner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-D.Jones]. DEN 30 – DAL 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 64%

    (13:39) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott right guard to DEN 39 for -1 yards (31-J.Simmons, 96-S.Harris).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 20 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at DAL 20, recovered by DAL-24-K.Joseph at DAL 15. 24-K.Joseph to DAL 22 for 7 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 92%

    (8:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 1-C.Wilson.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (:03) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:58) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%

    (3:46) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:51) 6-S.Martin punts 2 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-N.Wright MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-50-J.Griffith at DEN 19.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (8:12) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 70%

    (4:48) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 27%

    (3:55) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. Injury Update: 11-Patrick Surtain has a knee injury. His return status is questionable.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Sterns at DAL 40. 30-C.Sterns to DAL 39 for 1 yard (86-D.Schultz).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

    (6:36) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:10) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DAL 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.