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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 9

Denver Broncos 16 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP