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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 19

What Actually Happened

(6:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.88 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model