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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 35

Denver Broncos 19 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model