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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 19

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. Injury Update: 11-Patrick Surtain has a knee injury. His return status is questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model