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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 24

Denver Broncos 27 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model