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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 76

Denver Broncos 30 – Dallas Cowboys 8

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DAL 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model