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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 1-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model