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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to KC 33, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-M.Hardman to KC 36 for 3 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.31 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model