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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

GB
55.5%
KC
44.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • GB on 4 more days rest than KC
  • QB edge to GB: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.201 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.241 EPA/dropback (GB starting Jordan Love in place of Aaron Rodgers)

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
KC 22
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

GB

Kingsley Keke DE Out Concussion
Dennis Kelly T Questionable Back
Dean Lowry DE Questionable Hamstring

KC

Mike Remmers T Out Knee
Khalen Saunders DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 7
–
KC 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:00 TD KC (6:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 01:54 FG KC (1:54) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. GB 0 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:06 FG KC (:06) 7-H.Butker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. GB 0 – KC 13
  • Q4 05:00 TD GB (5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – KC 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:01) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to KC 33, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-M.Hardman to KC 36 for 3 yards (42-O.Burks).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:37) 31-Da.Williams up the middle to GB 44 for 11 yards (26-D.Savage; 31-A.Amos).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (:52) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 31-Da.Williams to KC 37 for -2 yards (26-D.Savage, 51-K.Barnes) [52-R.Gary].

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (10:48) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Okafor), Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by KC-91-D.Nnadi at KC 19.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to GB 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-85-M.Kemp.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:39) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kansas City challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 86-M.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-26-C.Lammons at GB 10.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:54) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 55%

    (:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams [49-D.Sorensen].

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:40) 5-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to GB 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-Am.Rodgers MUFFS catch, touched at GB 14, and recovers at GB 12.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:21) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to KC 30, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 23. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 23 for no gain.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:32) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to GB 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 20 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:56) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to KC 9, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-19-E.St. Brown.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 20%

    (:59) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to GB 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-85-M.Kemp.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 47%

    (11:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 17-D.Adams to KC 39 for 2 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:02) 5-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to GB 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 47 for 15 yards (23-A.Watts).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.