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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kansas City challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 86-M.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-26-C.Lammons at GB 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP