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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model