Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 86

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to KC 30, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 23. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 23 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.74 EP
56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model