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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 31-Da.Williams up the middle to GB 44 for 11 yards (26-D.Savage; 31-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.13 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model