Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(6:56) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to KC 9, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-19-E.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model