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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:59) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to GB 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-85-M.Kemp.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.77 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP