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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 17-D.Adams to KC 39 for 2 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model