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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model