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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:52) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model