Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.50 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model