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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread 4.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

HOU
48.5%
MIA
51.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.208 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Jacoby Brissett (MIA) -0.109 vs Tyrod Taylor (HOU) +0.510 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Jacoby Brissett in place of Tua Tagovailoa; HOU starting Tyrod Taylor in place of Davis Mills)
  • MIA defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

HOU

Pharaoh Brown TE Out Thigh
Christian Kirksey LB Out Thumb
Hardy Nickerson LB Out Concussion
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter

MIA

Jerome Baker LB Questionable Knee
Tua Tagovailoa QB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 9
–
MIA 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:41 TD MIA (4:41) Direct snap to 37-M.Gaskin. 37-M.Gaskin right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 09:52 FG HOU (9:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – MIA 7
  • Q2 04:37 FG HOU (4:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 01:12 FG MIA (1:12) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. HOU 6 – MIA 10
  • Q2 00:33 TD MIA (:33) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short middle to 86-M.Hollins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – MIA 16
  • Q4 11:35 FG HOU (11:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 9 – MIA 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:18) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to HOU 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland pushed ob at MIA 29 for 15 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (9:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to HOU 38, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 25-D.King to HOU 40 for 2 yards (22-E.Campbell). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (4:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 83%

    (1:12) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland ran ob at MIA 28 for 18 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on MIA-42-C.Fejedelem, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at MIA 16. Penalty on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%

    (2:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to HOU 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.02 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (11:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 26%

    (5:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:04) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to HOU 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 50%

    (:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to HOU 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 94 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 15 for 9 yards. Lateral to 12-N.Collins to HOU 13 for -2 yards. Lateral to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 15 for 2 yards (55-J.Baker).