Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 0 – Houston Texans 0

(14:18) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to HOU 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.22 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model