Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 61

Houston Texans 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.39 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model