Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 58

Houston Texans 6 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland ran ob at MIA 28 for 18 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on MIA-42-C.Fejedelem, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at MIA 16. Penalty on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.94 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model