Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 94

Houston Texans 9 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 15 for 9 yards. Lateral to 12-N.Collins to HOU 13 for -2 yards. Lateral to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 15 for 2 yards (55-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.05 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 94, worth -1.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP