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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (No Huddle) 27-J.Kelley left end to PHI 26 for 1 yard (57-T.Edwards; 49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.13 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model