Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- PHI defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
LAC
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:54 TD LAC (:54) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 82-S.Anderson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – PHI 0
- Q2 11:25 TD PHI (11:25) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – PHI 6
- Q2 00:24 FG PHI (:24) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. LAC 7 – PHI 10
- Q3 10:36 FG LAC (10:36) 6-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 10 – PHI 10
- Q3 06:50 TD LAC (6:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – PHI 10
- Q3 03:14 TD PHI (3:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – PHI 16
- Q4 11:38 TD LAC (11:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 22 – PHI 17
- Q4 06:16 TD PHI (6:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 24 – PHI 23
- Q4 00:05 FG LAC (:05) 6-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 27 – PHI 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 37%
(12:47) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to LAC 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%
(5:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to PHI 1 for 1 yard (21-A.Chachere).
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Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to PHI 48, Center-45-R.Lovato. 7-A.Roberts pushed ob at PHI 38 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 81%
(7:30) (No Huddle) 27-J.Kelley left end to PHI 26 for 1 yard (57-T.Edwards; 49-A.Singleton).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(:24) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(10:36) 6-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:50) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to LAC 34, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-49-A.Singleton.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 39 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 53%
(2:48) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to PHI 37 for 2 yards (58-G.Avery).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 28 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 79%
(1:45) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to PHI 27 for 1 yard (93-M.Williams).