4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 6-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model