Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Los Angeles Chargers
4th & 1 at the 39
Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 24
What Actually Happened
(2:48) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to PHI 37 for 2 yards (58-G.Avery).
The Three Options
GO
+1.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.50 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.28 EP
KICK
+0.33 EP
- 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
- 47% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
