Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 96

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(4:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to PHI 48, Center-45-R.Lovato. 7-A.Roberts pushed ob at PHI 38 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.38 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model