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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(12:39) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman left end pushed ob at BAL 44 for 8 yards (27-C.Dantzler). PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 44.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.26 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model