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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

MIN
38.8%
BAL
61.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • BAL on 7 more days rest than MIN
  • MIN offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.156 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.126 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
BAL 27
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIN

Michael Pierce DT Out Elbow
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Knee
Cameron Dantzler CB Questionable Ankle

BAL

Patrick Mekari G Doubtful Ankle
Latavius Murray RB Doubtful Ankle
Rashod Bateman WR Questionable Groin
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Thigh
Brandon Williams DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 31
–
BAL 34

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:38 FG BAL (10:38) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. MIN 0 – BAL 3
  • Q1 08:39 TD MIN (8:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – BAL 3
  • Q2 13:17 TD MIN (13:17) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-93-C.Campbell, Defensive Offside, declined. MIN 13 – BAL 3
  • Q2 01:29 FG MIN (1:29) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 17 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:23 TD BAL (:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 33-D.Freeman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – BAL 9
  • Q3 15:00 TD MIN 9-J.Tucker kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 02. 26-K.Nwangwu for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – BAL 10
  • Q3 08:43 TD BAL (8:43) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 42-P.Ricard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – BAL 16
  • Q4 09:23 TD BAL (9:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 13-D.Duvernay for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – BAL 23
  • Q4 03:32 TD BAL (3:32) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 17-L.Bell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – BAL 30
  • Q4 01:06 TD MIN (1:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 30 – BAL 31
  • Q5 00:20 FG BAL (:20) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. MIN 31 – BAL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (10:38) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (4:54) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-80-M.Boykin.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:14) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to MIN 28, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:09) 3-J.Berry punts 53 yards to BAL 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-85-D.Chisena.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:46) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:58) 3-J.Berry punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (1:29) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:39) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman left end pushed ob at BAL 44 for 8 yards (27-C.Dantzler). PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 44.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 42-P.Ricard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 26-K.Nwangwu right end pushed ob at MIN 42 for 9 yards (49-C.Board). Fake punt

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:43) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:19) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 28 for 1 yard (79-K.Willekes).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:56) 3-J.Berry punts 53 yards to BAL 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 39 for 14 yards (57-R.Connelly).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at BAL 4 for 12 yards (25-T.Young) [50-J.Houston].