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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Punt formation) 26-K.Nwangwu right end pushed ob at MIN 42 for 9 yards (49-C.Board). Fake punt

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model