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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model