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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 28 for 1 yard (79-K.Willekes).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model