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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 3-J.Berry punts 53 yards to BAL 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 39 for 14 yards (57-R.Connelly).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model