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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at BAL 4 for 12 yards (25-T.Young) [50-J.Houston].

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP