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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model